COUNTRY FRIED

Just in Case You Didn't Notice

My prediction of the South Carolina Democrat Primary results:

Obama 44
Clinton 29
Edwards 26
Other 1

The Actual Results

Obama 55
Clinton 27
Edwards 18
Other <1

So, I got the order right, but I seriously underestimated the margin of Obama's victory. I was very close on Clinton's numbers, but I overestimated the last minute movement in Edwards' direction.

There were many impressive things about this primary. Who would have thought that, in a year when both parties were having very competitive presidential primaries, that more South Carolinians would turn out to vote in a Democrat primary than in a Republican primary?

OBAMA WINS SOUTH CAROLINA . . . BIG TIME.

NBC CALLS IT AS THE POLLS CLOSE. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, THE SIZE OF THE VICTORY WILL BECOME CLEARER.

SC Democrat Primary UPDATE: Something to Read Until the Polls Close

Here are a couple of articles about today's Democrat primary in South Carolina:

To Truly Win in Carolina, Obama Needs Large Margin (Amy Chozick, Wall Street Journal)
Early Turnout Well Above Average (Shailagh Murray, Washington Post's The Trail)

Also, The State's S.C. Politics Today blog has been providing updates throughout the day on turnout levels at various polling sites.

Finally, there was an updated Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll released after I completed my final poll post. It was taken Jan. 24-25 with the following results: Obama 41, Clinton 26, Edwards 19.

The actual polls close in about two and a half hours.

SC Democrat Primary UPDATE: Clinton's Last Minute Attack on Edwards

Hillary's campaign must be worried about the Edwards' surge in South Carolina because they are placing recorded phone calls to South Carolina voters attacking John Edwards. Here is the text of the call (courtesy of The Page):

Hello, This is the Hillary Clinton for President Campaign.

Before you vote on Saturday, you should know that John Edwards voted for permanent trade relations with China. That’s right, John Edwards voted for the bill that cost thousands of jobs. Like the ones in the textile mills he talks about so much down here.

You should also know that John Edwards made nearly a half a million dollars working for a Wall Street investment fund. A fund that’s been profiting on foreclosing on the homes of families; including 100 homes right here in South Carolina. That’s according to The State newspaper. Here in South Carolina, Edwards says he’s one of us, but up on Wall Street he was just another one of them.

Can you trust John Edwards? This call is paid for by the Hillary Clinton for President Campaign.

You can listen to a recording of the call here.

Country Fried Prediction: 2008 SC Democrat Presidential Primary

Once again, here is my educated guess. Several thoughts guide these predictions. First, excepting the Clemson poll (which I think is an outlier), Obama has consistently polled in the range of 38 to 45, Clinton's range has been 24 to 30, and Edwards range has been 17 to 24. Second, I think Obama has experienced a slight dip in the final days, but that will be offset by the benefit he receives from high turnout--especially within the African American community. Third, I think that Edwards is experiencing a mini-surge here at the end, but, in my opinion, it won't be enough to pass Hillary. (The question then arises: Is she hurt more by barely beating Edwards than she would have been by losing to him--and thereby making his "upset" second a bigger story than Obama's win?)

Without further ado . . . My predictions

Obama 44
Clinton 29
Edwards 26
Other 1

Final SC Democrat Polls Show Tightening Race

If the ARG poll is to be believed, Hillary may actually pull an upset victory tomorrow. However, the other three polls give Obama a solid lead and raise a greater possibility of a surprise second place showing by Edwards. However, given the fact that all of the polls in New Hampshire overestimated Obama's support, I'm still hesitant to put too much stock in these polls. Since the true polls actually open in just over five hours, we won't have to wait much longer. I'll post my predictions soon.

ARG (Jan. 24-25)
Obama 39
Clinton 36
Edwards 22

PPP (Jan. 24)
Obama 44
Clinton 24
Edwards 19

SurveyUSA (Jan. 23-24)
Obama 43
Clinton 30
Edwards 24

Reuters/C-Span/ Zogby(Jan. 22-24)
Obama 38
Clinton 25
Edwards 21

John Edwards' Closing Ad for South Carolina

This a pretty effective ad--especially since it repeats attacks on the other candidates (using their own words) while making it seem like Edwards is above the fray.

Colbert to Governor Sanford: "You are a manila envelope glued to a beige wall."

Those were the words that Colbert used to describe how boring he found Governor Mark Sanford to be during this interview. To drive home the point, Colbert added, "You're walking, talking Ambien."

So, what did we learn? That Mark Sanford apparently doesn't know the distinction between a cross and a crucifix. And that he either isn't very funny or is incredibly good at playing the straight man.

Hat Tip: The Palmetto Scoop

New SC Polls: Obama Continues to Lead, But Is Edwards On the Move?

Could Hillary’s decision to devote less time to South Carolina lead to a photo finish between her and Edwards for second and third?

Here are some recent polls in reverse chronological order. Some of these numbers indicate a tightening of the spread between Edwards and Clinton, but others continue to show a substantial margin. How much would it hurt Clinton to come in third (again)? And would a second place finish breath new life into the Edwards campaign? Moreover, could a second place showing by Edwards take some of the spotlight away from an Obama win (and thereby, in the perverse ways of political coverage, actually help Clinton more than if she came in second)?

SurveyUSA (Jan. 22-23)
Obama 45
Clinton 29
Edwards 22

Mason-Dixon/MSNBC (Jan. 22-23)
Obama 38
Clinton 30
Edwards 19

ARG (Jan. 22-23)
Obama 45
Clinton 36
Edwards 12

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby tracking poll (Jan. 21-23)
Obama 39
Clinton 24
Edwards 19

Clemson University Palmetto Poll (Jan. 15-23)
Obama 27
Clinton 20
Edwards 17

Rasmussen (Jan. 21)
Obama 43
Clinton 28
Edwards 17

Wall Street Journal Video Report on Obama's South Carolina Strategy

This is a video report by Wall Street Journal reporter, Chris Cooper, regarding the ways in which the Obama campaign has shaped its campaign in South Carolina. It ends with a contrasting juxtaposition of the Obama and Clinton campaign headquarters in South Carolina.

The corresponding print article can be found here. What follows is an interesting excerpt regarding the "Old vs. New" strategies employed by the respective campaigns.

In early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, campaigns use rallies and personal appearances to get votes. Now, the nominating races have moved to bigger states, including much of the South. Candidates here rely on endorsements from powerful politicians and preachers. It is a tradition that has evolved since the 1960s to garner support among poor blacks who look to their preachers for both spiritual and political guidance. And it is the way Mrs. Clinton, like countless Democratic politicians before her, is running her campaign in South Carolina.

Mr. Obama, in contrast, is trying something many observers say has never been done here: He is circumventing entrenched local leadership and building a political machine from scratch. His staff consists largely of community organizers -- many from out of state or with no political experience -- who are assembling an army of volunteers. It is a strategy often used by labor organizations and in neighborhood and town politics.