A Mason-Dixon poll taken October 19-20 and published in today’s Charleston Post & Courier found Jim DeMint at 47% and Inez Tenenbaum at 43%. As the article reports, DeMint’s lead over Tenenbaum has tightened from the 50% to 38% lead that he held over Tenenbaum in an earlier Mason-Dixon poll conducted in late September. (The article states that the earlier poll was “from early October” but, according to the original article on that poll, the poll was conducted September 27 to 29.) Furthermore, the article notes that DeMint’s lead is now within the margin of error.
The headline in the Post & Courier regarding this poll is “Neck & Neck: DeMint's Once-Huge Lead Gone, Poll Finds.” On The State paper’s website, the poll has been picked up in a wire report and is titled, “DeMint's Senate Bid Lead Evaporates in South Carolina Poll.”
Those headlines are exaggerations—and the one on the State’s website is downright misleading. DeMint’s lead has not evaporated—it has shrunk significantly, but it hasn’t disappeared. For those of you who are interested, here is a historical look at the polling in this race (to see this information in an easier to read table, click here):
9/7-9/9 - Public Opinion Strategies (R) - DeMint 50, Tenenbaum 37, Und/Other 13 - DeMint +13
9/7-9/9 - Global Strategy Group (D) - DeMint 44, Tenenbaum 41, Und/Other 15 - DeMint +3
9/19-9/21- Survey USA - DeMint 51, Tenenbaum 39, Und/Other 10 - DeMint +12
9/25-9/26 - Basswood Research (R) - DeMint 45, Tenenbaum 32, Und/Other 23 - DeMint +13
9/27-9/29 - Global Strategy Group (D) - DeMint 43, Tenenbaum 46, Und/Other 11 - Tenen. +3
9/27-9/29 - Mason-Dixon - DeMint 50, Tenenbaum 38, Und/Other 12 - DeMint +12
9/29-9/30 - McLaughlin (R) - DeMint 46, Tenenbaum 36, Und/Other 18 - DeMint +10
10/6 - Rasmussen - DeMint 49, Tenenbaum 43, Und/Other 8 - DeMint +6
10/10-10/12 - Survey USA - DeMint 46, Tenenbaum 43, Und/Other 11 - DeMint +3
10/19-10/20 - Mason-Dixon - DeMint 47, Tenenbaum 43, Und/Other 10 - DeMint +4
Considering these numbers and the state of the race, I have several initial observations:
1) The two Democrat polls, by Global Strategy Group (GSG), are clearly outliers. Those two polls showed that DeMint’s lead was only three points in early September and that, by late September, Tenenbaum had pulled out to a three point lead. However, all other polls taken in September—both independent and Republican—showed a fairly consistent double digit (10 to 13 points) lead for DeMint. Therefore, I think we can safely ignore the GSG polls for the purposes of considering the true shape of the race (and, for the rest of this analysis, I will).
2) As a result of Tenenbaum’s attacks on DeMint’s 23% sales tax proposal (which went into full swing in mid-to-late September) as well as DeMint’s comments on gay schoolteachers (which occurred on October 3) and pregnant, unwed schoolteachers (which occurred on October 5), DeMint’s support dropped a few points and Tenenbaum's increased few points. As a result, DeMint’s lead was narrowed from 10-13 points to 3-6 points. (The Rasmussen poll, which was taken on October 6 and showed the race already narrowed to 6 points, indicates to me that most of the movement in poll numbers was probably due to the sales tax issue.)
3) DeMint's numbers have stabilized after a clear drop in early-to-mid October. It appears that his campaign has successfully gotten back on track and on message for the final push (although you wouldn't know it from Lee Bandy's hysterics in this column in today's State).
In considering whether this race is really a dead heat now, I would make two additional observations (remember, I am ignoring the GSG polls because they show no correlation to any of the other polls):
1) Throughout September and October, DeMint’s has consistently polled at between 45 to 50%.
2) Tenenbaum has never polled over 43%.
In conclusion, I think that Jim DeMint still has a solid—though narrower—lead over Tenenbaum. To state the obvious, it is very difficult to get elected to a prominent statewide position in South Carolina if you are a Democrat. Although DeMint has run a sloppy campaign at times, he is a formidable candidate: a sitting U.S. Congressman from the Upstate with a solid conservative voting record and the full backing—financial and otherwise—of S.C. Republican leaders as well as the national party. In short, he’s no Dan Hiltgen (the Republican political novice who was soundly trounced by Tenenbaum in her 2002 State Superintendent of Education reelection bid).
My Prediction
Tenenbaum will have a very difficult time getting much more than 45% of the vote on Election Day. (Remember that, in 2002, Lindsey Graham beat Alex Sanders—who many Democrats trumpeted as just the kind of Democrat who could win in South Carolina—54% to 44%.) With nine days left to go (and recognizing that things could still happen to change the final tally), I predict that, on the night of the election, DeMint will be declared the winner before 11 p.m. and that the final tally will be (approximately): DeMint 52, Tenenbaum 46.
Good News Addendum: Most S.C. Voters Polled Don't Want a 23 % National Sales Tax & Don't Want to Fire Gay Teachers
The Mason-Dixon poll also asked respondents about their position on several points of controversy in the campaign. When asked whether they supported Jim DeMint’s proposal to eliminate the federal income tax and replace it with a national sales tax, 62% opposed it and only 25% supported it. When asked whether they supported the plank in the Republican Party platform opposing the hiring of gay individuals to teach in public schools, only 34% agreed with DeMint’s initial answer and supported the proposal. Thankfully, a majority of South Carolinians polled--52%--stated that they opposed the proposal. I understand that 52% isn’t exactly an overwhelming condemnation (and 52% of DeMint voters stated that they support the proposal), but, as I have said before, it’s a start. (Also, it’s worth noting that, among undecided voters, 44% support the proposal against gay teachers, whereas only 40% of undecided voters oppose it—so, at this point, the issue is unlikely to damage DeMint any further.)