COUNTRY FRIED

Country Fried's 2008 U.S. Senate Election Final Predictions: Democrats Gain 7 Seats

The Senate is currently composed of 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents.  However, both of the Independents (Lieberman and Jeffords) caucus with the Democrats, thereby giving the Democrats a 51 to 49 working majority.

There are 35 Senate seats at stake in this election. (Normally, there would have been 33 Senate seats at stake in this election cycle.  However, the death of Wyoming Senator Craig Thomas has led to a special election for the remaining four years of his term, and the resignation of Trent Lott in Mississippi has led to a special election for the remaining four years of his term.)  Republicans currently hold 23 of the seats at stake (including the two special election seats), and Democrats hold 12.

Political pundits appear unanimous in concluding that the Democrats will increase their numbers in the Senate after the votes are counted this year.  The big question, though, is by how much.  More specifically, will the Democrats be able to reach the magic number of 60, which would give them a “filibuster-proof” majority (assuming that members vote along party lines—and that Lieberman continues to caucus with the Democrats after the election)?  As explained below, the Democrats will increase their numbers substantially, but will likely fall a couple of seats short of the 60 mark.

 

Democrat Holds (12 of 12): Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joe Biden), Illinois (Dick Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Louisiana (Mary Landrieu), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

 

Republican Holds (16 of 23): Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Idaho (Jim Risch), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Maine (Susan Collins), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), Mississippi special (Roger Wicker), Nebraska (Mike Johanns), Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Texas (John Cornyn), Wyoming (Mike Enzi), Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

 

Predicted Seat Changes – 7 Senate Seats Move from Republican to Democrat Column –

• Alaska: Democrat Mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich, will defeat convicted incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens.
• Colorado: Democrat Congressman Mark Udall defeats Republican former Congressman Bob Schaffer to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard.
• New Hampshire: Democrat former Governor Jeanne Shaheen will defeat first-term incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu
• New Mexico: Democrat Congressman Tom Udall (whose cousin is running in Colorado) defeats Republican Congressman Steve Pearce to take the place of retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici.
• North Carolina: Democrat State Senator Kay Hagan defeats incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.
• Oregon: Democrat State House Speaker Jeff Merkley will defeat incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith.
• Virginia: Democrat former Governor Mark Warner defeats Republican former Governor Jim Gilmore to replace the retiring Republican Senator, John Warner. 

The Races to Watch (i.e., where I could be wrong): Alaska, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi (special), New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon.  One final note: if neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in Georgia's Senate election, the candidates will be forced to compete in a run-off election in December.

2006 U.S. Senate Election Predictions: GOP Loses 3 Seats

NOTE: I WILL UPDATE THIS POST THROUGHOUT TODAY (ELECTION EVE) AS I COMPLETE MY ANALYSIS.
AS OF 8:10PM, THIS POST HAS BEEN FULLY UPDATED WITH ALL RACES PREDICTED.

Introduction

Tomorrow, November 7, 2006, there will be 33 United States Senate seats up for election. The current make-up of the United States Senate is 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent (Jim Jeffords of Vermont who caucuses with the Democrats). Of those totals, 15 Republican seats, 17 Democrat seats, and the lone Independent seat are being contested in this election. Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that, no matter what happens at the polls on Election Day, there will be at least 40 Republicans and 27 Democrats in the next United States Senate. Out of the 33 contests, 29 races feature incumbents who are seeking to retain their seats. Thus, there are only 4 open seats—1 Republican seat (due to the retirement of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee); 2 Democrat seats (Maryland and Minnesota); and 1 Independent seat (Jeffords of Vermont is also retiring).

So, we will start with those totals and add additional seats as predictions accumulate:

Predictions

19 Safe Seats

In 18 Senate elections, there are now no serious challenges to the incumbent U.S. Senators running to retain their seats. Of these seats, 11 are held by Democrats—California (Dianne Feinstein); Delaware (Thomas Carper); Florida (Bill Nelson); Hawaii (Daniel Akaka); Massachusetts (Edward Kennedy); Nebraska (Ben Nelson); New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman); New York (Hillary Rodham Clinton); North Dakota (Kent Conrad); West Virginia (Robert Byrd); and Wisconsin (Herb Kohl)—and 7 are held by Republicans—Indiana (Richard Lugar), Maine (Olympia Snowe); Mississippi (Trent Lott); Nevada (John Ensign); Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison); Utah (Orrin Hatch); and Wyoming (Craig Thomas). In addition, in Vermont, Socialist Congressman Bernie Sanders is overwhelmingly favored to replace Jim Jeffords—thereby keeping that seat in the independent column.

Once the Safe Seats are added back in, there will be at least 47 Republicans, 38 Democrats, and 1 Independent in the next U.S. Senate.

2 Incumbents Who Will Lose

Unless something drastic happens in Ohio or Pennsylvania in the next 24 hours, Republican incumbents Mike DeWine (Ohio) and Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania) will lose to their Democrat opponents (Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey, respectively).

Once these loses are added in, there are 47 Republicans, 40 Democrats, and 1 Independent.

5 Potential—Though Unlikely—Surprises

There are 4 races where there is an outside chance of a challenger scoring an upset victory over an incumbent. In 3 of those races the incumbent is a Democrat—Connecticut (Joseph Lieberman); Michigan (Debbie Stabenow); and Washington (Maria Cantwell). (However, since Lieberman is now running as an Independent, an upset victory by his opponent, Ned Lamont, would mean a Democrat victory.) And in 1 of those races the incumbent is a Republican—Arizona (John Kyl). Moreover, there is one open seat currently held by a Democrat where the Republican has, at best, an outside chance of winning. That seat is Minnesota, where Amy Klobuchar appears to be headed to a comfortable victory over Congressman Mark Kennedy.

Assuming that there are no surprises out of this category (and recognizing that a Lieberman win switches that seat from Democrat to Independent), the score now comes to 48 Republicans, 43 Democrats, and 2 Independents (both of whom would caucus with the Democrats). This leaves 7 seats to watch closely on Election Night.

Before moving on, it’s worth noting that the Democrats have to keep the Republicans below 50 seats in order to seize control of the Senate. (In case of a tie, the Vice President casts the deciding vote in the Senate—thus, Dick Cheney could give 50 Republicans a majority for organizing the Senate.) Therefore, in order to gain control of the upper chamber, Democrats have to wine 6 out of 7 of the following races. If Republicans can hold onto at least 2 of the following 7 races, they will maintain, by the barest of margins, control of the Senate.

Just like in 2004, we are down to:

THE SELECT SEVEN

These seven races are the ones to watch on Election Night. They seats include: 2 open seats (Tennessee, currently Republican, and Maryland, currently Democrat); 4 Republican incumbents; and 1 Democrat incumbent. I have divided these seven into two categories: Leaners, where I believe the polls and general trends give us a reasonable indication of who will win, and the Toss-Ups, where your guess is (almost) as good as mine.

The Two Leaners

1. Tennessee – Republican Bob Corker has recently opened a consistent (and in some polls, fairly healthy) lead over Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. Unless something big happens in the next 24 hours, this one will stay with the Republicans—which means the Democrats have to bat .1000 in the remaining races in order to gain control.

2. New Jersey – Democrat Robert Menendez was appointed by Governor Jon Corzine to replace Corzine in the Senate after he was elected governor. Tom Kean, Jr., was considered one of the most promising Republican challengers—especially after news of corruption scandals arose regarding Menendez. However, going into Election Day, Menendez has a consistent lead in the polls. The Democrats will hold this seat.

Once the Leaners are added in, the score becomes 49 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 Democrat-aligned Independents. The Democrats have to run the table in the Five Toss-Ups in order to gain control.

The Five Toss-Ups

12:52 PM: I WILL UPDATE THIS POST LATER TODAY (OR THIS EVENING) IN ORDER TO PROVIDE MY PREDICTIONS IN THE FIVE TOSS-UP RACES (MARYLAND, MISSOURI, MONTANA, RHODE ISLAND, AND VIRGINIA).

4:42 PM UPDATE: HERE ARE FOUR OF THE FIVE TOSS-UPS. I'M STILL DELIBERATING ON MARYLAND.

1. Missouri – Incumbent Republican Jim Talent has been locked in a consistently tight race against Democrat Claire McCaskill. Over recent months, polls have almost uniformly shown these candidates within one or two points of each other. On Election Day, it could easily go either way. However, greater organizational prowess should allow Talent to eke out a razor thin victory. The Republicans will hold this seat—and thereby hold the majority.

2. Rhode Island – The most liberal Republican in the United States Senate, Lincoln Chafee, is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse. Just a week ago, Whitehouse looked like a fairly sure thing to oust Chafee. However, some recent polls have shown this race tightening—and one poll from this past weekend actually shows Chafee ahead by a point. Despite this tightening, I think that Chafee will be unable to survive. The Democrats will take this seat.

3. Montana – After being tainted by the Jack Abramoff scandal (due to having received nearly $150,000 in contributions from Abramoff and his clients or associates), incumbent Conrad Burns had been written off as another likely Republican casualty several weeks ago. However, in the last couple of weeks, this race has tightened, and new polls have shown Burns and his opponent, John Tester, neck-and-neck. Given this trend and the strong Republican leanings of Montana, Burns should squeak through to victory. In a come from behind victory, the Republicans will hold this seat.

4. Virginia – Incumbent Republican Senator George Allen started this campaign season being touted as a potential 2008 White House contender. His only problems: himself and an intervening reelection campaign. Allen has run one of the worst campaigns of an incumbent Senator this cycle. From his “macaca” comment to his criticisms of lurid scenes in his opponent’s novels, Allen has consistently harmed his own chances for survival. In the past couple of weeks, there has been a definite trend in favor of his opponent, former Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan, James Webb. The Democrats will take this seat.

STILL BROODING OVER MARYLAND . . . .

8:10 PM UPDATE: HERE'S MY FINAL PREDICTION.

5. Maryland – This is a Democrat open seat in a very Democrat-oriented stated. Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele has run a near flawless campaign against lackluster Democrat Congressman Ben Cardin. If it weren’t for the strong Democrat leanings of the electorate, Steele would be the favorite. Instead, polling over the past several months has consistently given Cardin a lead in high single digits or low double digits. That has changed, however, in the past week with Steele closing the gap consistently to within 5 points—and, in at least one poll, bringing the race to a tie. The momentum is clearly on Steele’s side. The question is: Does he have enough to win? We won't know the answer for sure until tomorrow night, but I'm going with the momentum to predict that Michael Steele pulls out a shocker upset victory over Ben Cardin. (Though, this could certainly be the race that proves the fallibility of my prognosticating capacity.) The Republicans take this seat.

The Final Tally—52 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 Democrat-Aligning Independents—a 3 seat Republican loss.

34 for 34! Country Fried Perfects the Art of Prediction in U.S. Senate Races

On the night before the election, I posted my final predictions as to the 34 races for the United States Senate. Well, the votes have been cast and counted, and the winners have now been declared in all 34 races. If you don’t already know the winners, you can take a quick look at my predictions because, in each race, my predicted winner is the actual winner.

In summary, the Republicans gained four seats in the U.S. Senate by: (1) picking up Democrat seats in South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana (without a runoff), and South Dakota; (2) losing only two Republican seats to the Democrats--in Illinois and Colorado; and (3) holding Republican seats in competitive races in Kentucky, Oklahoma, and, lastly, Alaska. As a result, next year’s Senate will have 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Jim Jeffords (as well as a new Minority Leader due to Daschle’s defeat).

Presidential Predictions v. Results

In the Presidential Election, I didn’t quite reach perfection. I was, however, pretty doggone close.

My predicted popular vote total was Bush 50.5%, Kerry 48%, Nader 1%, and others 0.5%. The actual results appear to be Bush 51.1%, Kerry 48%, Nader 0.3%, and others 0.6%. Basically, I underestimated Bush’s support by 0.6%, overestimated Nader by 0.7%, and underestimated votes for other minor party candidates by 0.1%.

My predicted electoral vote total was Bush 300 and Kerry 238. The actual tally appears to be Bush 286 (assuming Bush’s leads in New Mexico and Iowa hold) and Kerry 252 (assuming Kerry’s lead in Wisconsin holds). My errors were in calling Toss-Up states Hawaii and Wisconsin for Bush.

Congressional Results

I didn’t try to predict the results in the U.S. House because I didn’t have the time to try to follow individual House races. However, the GOP appears likely to have increased its majority in the House by 3 or 4 seats. The GOP went into the election controlling 229 of the House's 435 seats (when two recently vacated GOP-leaning districts are counted). Democrats controlled 205 seats with 1 Democrat-leaning Independent. (The N.Y. Times website differs slightly on these numbers indicating that the Republicans had 228 and the Democrats had 206.)

At this point, the GOP appears to have secured at least 231 seats. The Democrats have won 200 seats plus the 1 Democrat-leaning Independent. Three races are still undecided with Democrats likely to win one of those and Republicans the other two.

Country Fried Final U.S. Senate Predictions: 4 Seat GOP Gain

Introduction

Tomorrow, voters in 34 states will be electing their U.S. Senators. Of those 34 seats up for grabs, 19 are currently held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans. The current make-up of the U.S. Senate is 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 1 “Independent” (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont who supports the Democrat leadership). Thus, of the current members of the Senate, the seats of 36 Republicans, 29 Democrats, and Jim Jeffords are not on the ballot tomorrow.

Of the 34 seats that are on the ballot, the incumbent senator is running for re-election in 26 races—leaving 8 open seats. Of the open seats, 5 are held by retiring Democrats, and 3 are held by retiring Republicans.

Based on the seats not on the ballot, Republicans start the night knowing they will hold 36 seats in the next Congress and Democrats knowing they will hold 29 seats (unless Kerry wins—which means they would lose that seat, at least temporarily).

Predictions

I am now breaking down the 34 seats up for election as follows (my prior predictions are here and here):

21 Safe Seats: In 21 states, the incumbent U.S. Senator should win with little or no difficulty. Of these seats, 11 are held by Democrats--Arkansas (Lincoln), California (Boxer), Connecticut (Dodd), Hawaii (Inouye), Indiana (Bayh), Maryland (Mikulski), North Dakota (Dorgan), Nevada (Reid), New York (Schumer), Oregon (Wyden), and Vermont (Leahy)--and 10 are held by Republicans--Alabama (Shelby), Arizona (McCain), Iowa (Grassley), Idaho (Crapo), Kansas (Brownback), Missouri (Bond), New Hampshire (Gregg), Ohio (Voinovich), Pennsylvania (Specter), and Utah (Bennett).

Once the safe seats are added back in, the score becomes 46 Republicans and 40 Democrats.

3 Potential Surprises: There are 3 Senate races where there is an outside chance of a challenger scoring a surprise victory over an incumbent. 2 of these seats are held by Democrats--Washington (Murray) and Wisconsin (Feingold)--and 1 is held by a Republican--Kentucky (Bunning). Although I will be watching for an upset, I don’t believe it will happen in any of these races.

Once these reasonably safe seats are added back in, the score becomes 47 Republicans and 42 Democrats.

3 Open Seats Where Party Control Will Change

1) Illinois - Democrat Barack Obama will defeat Alan Keyes by an impressive margin to help Democrats pick up this Republican seat.

2) Georgia – Republican Johnny Isakson will handily defeat Democrat Denise Majette to give Republicans official control of this seat currently held by retiring Democrat Zell Miller.

3) South Carolina – Although his campaign has suffered from some stumbles in the final month, Jim DeMint will defeat Inez Tenenbaum to give Republicans control of this seat currently held by retiring Democrat Fritz Hollings.

Once these seats are added back in, the Republicans have a net gain of one, and the score becomes 49 Republicans and 43 Democrats.

The Select Seven

The final seven races should be the closest races of the night. These races include 5 open seats (Florida, Colorado, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Oklahoma) of which 2 are currently held by Republicans (Colorado and Oklahoma) and the remaining 3 are held by Democrats. The other 2 seats involve the 2 most endangered incumbents—Democrat Tom Daschle of South Dakota and Republican Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

I have divided these final seven races into 2 categories. The first five are races where I have some level of confidence in my predictions. The final two—the Two Toss-Ups—are the two races that I believe are most difficult to predict. Here they are:

1) Colorado – Democrat Ken Salazar has run an excellent campaign against Republican Pete Coors in the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Although a strong Bush showing in Colorado could prove me wrong, I am predicting that Salazar will win and give the Democrats a pick-up.

2) Louisiana – Republican David Vitter is running against two Democrats, Chris John and John Kennedy, in Louisiana’s open field general election to replace retiring Democrat John Breaux. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a run off will be held in December. I am predicting that Vitter will break the 50% mark and win outright tomorrow night. If he doesn’t, I believe that he will come so close that he will be the odds-on favorite to win in December. Under both scenarios, this becomes a Republican pick-up.

3) North Carolina – Republican Richard Burr has staged an incredible come-from-behind campaign against Democrat Erskine Bowles in the race to replace retiring (or promoted) Democrat John Edwards. Burr will win and give the Republicans another pick-up.

4) Oklahoma – Despite his own stumbles along the way, Republican Tom Coburn is poised to defeat Democrat Brad Carson to hold this seat for the Republicans.

5) South Dakota – In a major upset, Republican John Thune will defeat Democrat Senate Minority Leader Tom Dachle, thereby giving the Republicans another pick-up.

Once these five seats are added back in, the tally becomes 53 Republicans and 44 Democrats.

The Two Toss-Ups

These are the two where, by my own admission, there is the best chance that I will be wrong. Nevertheless, this is how I see them:

6) Alaska – With the help of an overpowering performance by President Bush in this state, incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski will hold on to defeat Democrat Tony Knowles, thereby allowing the Republicans to keep this once endangered seat.

7) Florida – Although the polls have gone back and forth in this race, I believe that Republican Mel Martinez will defeat Democrat Betty Castor by a slim margin in the race to replace Democrat Bob Graham—giving the Republicans their final pick-up.

The Final Tally—55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent—a four seat GOP pick-up.

Final Election Predictions Will Be Posted Tomorrow Night

I am working to put together my final election predictions, which I will post some time tomorrow night. My original predictions for the Presidential election are here and my pre-debate revised predictions are here. My original Senate predictions are here with a recent brief revised prediction here.

Hollings and Tenenbaum Contradict Themselves in Their Criticism of DeMint

As has been reported in several newspaper articles (here, here, and here), Fritz Hollings has recently come out swinging against Jim DeMint. However, his criticism of DeMint—much like Tenenbaum’s—is internally inconsistent. Let’s look at the two major arguments that Fritz and Inez are now making against DeMint (my description, their argument):

1) DeMint is a rabid advocate for a 23% national sales tax—putting himself on the fringes of the tax policy debate. As Tenenbaum likes to point out, a number of conservative economists have criticized the proposal. Furthermore, George Bush has recently stated his opposition to a national sales tax. Hollings took the point further yesterday by stating that both Governor Sanford and Senator Graham are against the proposal (although it's not clear to me that they are). So, according to Tenenbaum and Hollings, we have reason to worry that, if elected, DeMint will buck the GOP leadership and the President and push for a national sales tax.

2) DeMint is unable to take a stand for himself and would merely constitute “a rubber stamp” for the President. (Senator Hollings went so far as to say that South Carolina already has a rubber stamp for the President in Senator Graham, which indicates that Hollings either has become disengaged or is merely engaging in hyperbole. However, I do think it’s worth noting that, in recent years, Senator Hollings has become something of a “rubber stamp” himself—only he’s been a rubber stamp for Tom Daschle.)

Anyone who is reading this should be able to figure out the contradiction in the two arguments being made against DeMint. (In brief, argument number 1 provides evidence that argument number 2 is not true.) That said, I think that most South Carolinians wouldn't really have a big problem with sending a “rubber stamp” for President Bush to the U.S. Senate.

GOP Still Likely to Pick Up Several Seats in the U.S. Senate

Brian Hicks of the Charleston Post & Courier has an article in today’s paper about how South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is important to the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Hicks writes as if things are not looking as good for the GOP right now. I would beg to differ. First of all, it looks like the GOP is going to sweep the Carolinas (North and South) and Georgia, which translates into a three seat gain. (I've linked each state to the Real Clear Politics compilation of poll numbers for that state.) On the other side, the Democrats will pick up Illinois, which brings the GOP gain down to two. Beyond that, there are toss-up races in Louisiana, Oklahoma, Colorado, Florida, Alaska, and South Dakota (which Hicks fails to mention--for more on the South Dakota race, check out this site). In addition, there is a possibility for an upset of Republican incumbent Jim Bunning in Kentucky, but I think the GOP will hold this seat. At this point, I would give the edge to the GOP candidates in Louisiana, Oklahoma, Florida, and South Dakota. Oklahoma is currently GOP, but the other three are currently held by Democrats—so that makes another three seat pickup to bring the total GOP gain to five. With regard to Colorado and Alaska, which are currently GOP seats, I would now give a slight edge to the Democrats, thereby reducing Democrat loses by two. Therefore, at this point, I believe that we are likely to see a three seat pick-up for the GOP. That would make the breakdown in the U.S. Senate—54 Republicans, 45 Democrats, plus 1 Jim Jeffords.

For those of you who are looking for more information or analysis on the Senate races, I would recommend two sites that are focusing on the Senate battles--KivaCom and Senate Analysis 2004.

DeMint Stays on Message in Final Debate with Tenenbaum

South Carolina's U.S. Senate Candidates, Congressman Jim DeMint and State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, conducted their sixth and final debate earlier this evening. Unlike the first debate, in which DeMint made his now infamous remarks about gay teachers, both candidates avoided any major gaffes tonight and basically stayed on message. DeMint reminded us that he will stand with President Bush and the Republican leadership while being an independent voice for South Carolina. Tenenbaum repeated that she will be an independent voice for South Carolina while standing with (but not too close to) the Democrat leadership and, possibly, President Kerry.

One of the more interesting aspects of the debate was the moderation of the debate by WPDE anchor Jim Heath who appeared to be auditioning for South Carolina's version of Tim Russert. Unlike some of the earlier South Carolina news anchors who have moderated these debates, Heath actually asked substantive follow-up questions and tried to badger the candidates to answer his questions. He led off with a series of questions to Tenenbaum that sought to pin her down on her support of Kerry and the Democrat leadership and how that would benefit South Carolinians. Heath then asked DeMint a series of questions based on the criticism that some former Republican congressmen (primarily Joe Scarborough) have had of the free spending ways of the current Republican majority in Congress.

Some other bits:

- DeMint still apologizes for the distraction caused by his earlier comments on gay public school teachers, but not for the sentiment expressed. He was forceful in stating that he would not continue to dwell on the comments because it was a distraction from the more important issues (sounding a little like my earlier suggested response?).

- We learned that DeMint supports allowing U.S. citizens to buy prescription medicine from Canada and other countries. Tenenbaum said that she just wants to find out why citizens can get prescription drugs cheaper in Canada (not her best moment).

- Both candidates spoke highly of Bob Jones University and distanced themselves from Senator Hollings' recent criticism.

- Tenenbaum said that she would not impose a litmus test on judges and that she would look for integrity, fairness, and intelligence in the judges she "would nominate." (Note to Tenenbaum: you won't be nominating any judges any time soon.)

- Both candidates--like many South Carolinians--are undecided on the minibottle referendum.

- DeMint is for school vouchers, and Tenenbaum is against them.

- If elected, Tenenbaum plans "to help the President create an exit strategy" in Iraq. (I'm hoping that, whomever is President, Tenenbaum isn't the one advising him about our exit strategy.)

- Both DeMint and Tenenbaum said that they support having the 10 Commandments in S.C. classrooms and "In God We Trust" on our currency.

In the most bizarre moment of the evening, conservative columnist Armstrong Williams asked Tenenbaum (whom he continually addressed as "Madam Secretary"), "When does conception begin?" When Tenenbaum asked him if he meant "Does life begin at conception?" Williams said, "However you want to phrase it"--or something to that effect. When I relayed this question to my wife, who is a third year medical student, she pointed out that Tenenbaum might not have wanted to get into the specifics of exactly when conception begins on live TV with children possibly watching.

Tenenbaum did turn to the question that Williams had apparently intended to ask and said that "many faiths have many answers" to when life begins. As a Senator, she would be unwilling to impose any one of those answers. Despite those many answers, Tenenbaum stated that she had not figured out an answer for her own self.

DeMint responded that he believes it is "hypocritical to call an unborn child a baby when we want it and a fetus we don't." DeMint said that the focus should be "not when life begins but when love begins."

All in all, a fairly spirited debate. Tenenbaum had a few minor verbal slip-ups and basically seemed to be a little off-balance (especially as she stumbled through her closing statement). On the other hand, by putting in a focused and gaffe-free final performance, Jim DeMint has probably jumped the last major hurdle on his way to the U.S. Senate.

Final Note: The quotes above are based on written notes that I took during the debate so I apologize if they aren't word-for-word accurate.

Contrary to the Headlines, Polls Indicate DeMint Still Has Clear Advantage

A Mason-Dixon poll taken October 19-20 and published in today’s Charleston Post & Courier found Jim DeMint at 47% and Inez Tenenbaum at 43%. As the article reports, DeMint’s lead over Tenenbaum has tightened from the 50% to 38% lead that he held over Tenenbaum in an earlier Mason-Dixon poll conducted in late September. (The article states that the earlier poll was “from early October” but, according to the original article on that poll, the poll was conducted September 27 to 29.) Furthermore, the article notes that DeMint’s lead is now within the margin of error.

The headline in the Post & Courier regarding this poll is “Neck & Neck: DeMint's Once-Huge Lead Gone, Poll Finds.” On The State paper’s website, the poll has been picked up in a wire report and is titled, “DeMint's Senate Bid Lead Evaporates in South Carolina Poll.”

Those headlines are exaggerations—and the one on the State’s website is downright misleading. DeMint’s lead has not evaporated—it has shrunk significantly, but it hasn’t disappeared. For those of you who are interested, here is a historical look at the polling in this race (to see this information in an easier to read table, click here):

9/7-9/9 - Public Opinion Strategies (R) - DeMint 50, Tenenbaum 37, Und/Other 13 - DeMint +13
9/7-9/9 - Global Strategy Group (D) - DeMint 44, Tenenbaum 41, Und/Other 15 - DeMint +3
9/19-9/21- Survey USA - DeMint 51, Tenenbaum 39, Und/Other 10 - DeMint +12
9/25-9/26 - Basswood Research (R) - DeMint 45, Tenenbaum 32, Und/Other 23 - DeMint +13
9/27-9/29 - Global Strategy Group (D) - DeMint 43, Tenenbaum 46, Und/Other 11 - Tenen. +3
9/27-9/29 - Mason-Dixon - DeMint 50, Tenenbaum 38, Und/Other 12 - DeMint +12
9/29-9/30 - McLaughlin (R) - DeMint 46, Tenenbaum 36, Und/Other 18 - DeMint +10
10/6 - Rasmussen - DeMint 49, Tenenbaum 43, Und/Other 8 - DeMint +6
10/10-10/12 - Survey USA - DeMint 46, Tenenbaum 43, Und/Other 11 - DeMint +3
10/19-10/20 - Mason-Dixon - DeMint 47, Tenenbaum 43, Und/Other 10 - DeMint +4

Considering these numbers and the state of the race, I have several initial observations:

1) The two Democrat polls, by Global Strategy Group (GSG), are clearly outliers. Those two polls showed that DeMint’s lead was only three points in early September and that, by late September, Tenenbaum had pulled out to a three point lead. However, all other polls taken in September—both independent and Republican—showed a fairly consistent double digit (10 to 13 points) lead for DeMint. Therefore, I think we can safely ignore the GSG polls for the purposes of considering the true shape of the race (and, for the rest of this analysis, I will).

2) As a result of Tenenbaum’s attacks on DeMint’s 23% sales tax proposal (which went into full swing in mid-to-late September) as well as DeMint’s comments on gay schoolteachers (which occurred on October 3) and pregnant, unwed schoolteachers (which occurred on October 5), DeMint’s support dropped a few points and Tenenbaum's increased few points. As a result, DeMint’s lead was narrowed from 10-13 points to 3-6 points. (The Rasmussen poll, which was taken on October 6 and showed the race already narrowed to 6 points, indicates to me that most of the movement in poll numbers was probably due to the sales tax issue.)

3) DeMint's numbers have stabilized after a clear drop in early-to-mid October. It appears that his campaign has successfully gotten back on track and on message for the final push (although you wouldn't know it from Lee Bandy's hysterics in this column in today's State).

In considering whether this race is really a dead heat now, I would make two additional observations (remember, I am ignoring the GSG polls because they show no correlation to any of the other polls):

1) Throughout September and October, DeMint’s has consistently polled at between 45 to 50%.

2) Tenenbaum has never polled over 43%.

In conclusion, I think that Jim DeMint still has a solid—though narrower—lead over Tenenbaum. To state the obvious, it is very difficult to get elected to a prominent statewide position in South Carolina if you are a Democrat. Although DeMint has run a sloppy campaign at times, he is a formidable candidate: a sitting U.S. Congressman from the Upstate with a solid conservative voting record and the full backing—financial and otherwise—of S.C. Republican leaders as well as the national party. In short, he’s no Dan Hiltgen (the Republican political novice who was soundly trounced by Tenenbaum in her 2002 State Superintendent of Education reelection bid).

My Prediction

Tenenbaum will have a very difficult time getting much more than 45% of the vote on Election Day. (Remember that, in 2002, Lindsey Graham beat Alex Sanders—who many Democrats trumpeted as just the kind of Democrat who could win in South Carolina—54% to 44%.) With nine days left to go (and recognizing that things could still happen to change the final tally), I predict that, on the night of the election, DeMint will be declared the winner before 11 p.m. and that the final tally will be (approximately): DeMint 52, Tenenbaum 46.

Good News Addendum: Most S.C. Voters Polled Don't Want a 23 % National Sales Tax & Don't Want to Fire Gay Teachers

The Mason-Dixon poll also asked respondents about their position on several points of controversy in the campaign. When asked whether they supported Jim DeMint’s proposal to eliminate the federal income tax and replace it with a national sales tax, 62% opposed it and only 25% supported it. When asked whether they supported the plank in the Republican Party platform opposing the hiring of gay individuals to teach in public schools, only 34% agreed with DeMint’s initial answer and supported the proposal. Thankfully, a majority of South Carolinians polled--52%--stated that they opposed the proposal. I understand that 52% isn’t exactly an overwhelming condemnation (and 52% of DeMint voters stated that they support the proposal), but, as I have said before, it’s a start. (Also, it’s worth noting that, among undecided voters, 44% support the proposal against gay teachers, whereas only 40% of undecided voters oppose it—so, at this point, the issue is unlikely to damage DeMint any further.)

John Thune Challenges Daschle with Daschle’s Own Words

John Thune, who is challenging Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota, has recently released one of the most powerful ads of this election season. The ad is incredibly effective because all it does is replay video footage of Daschle’s own words—on Hillary Clinton, trial lawyers, abortion, and his own status as a resident of the District of Columbia (as opposed to South Dakota). Thune continues to be locked in a tight battle with Daschle. However, this is the kind of ad that could put Thune over the top and send the "Great Obstructionist" packing (although, if he loses, Daschle probably won’t be returning to South Dakota.).

(Thanks to Powerline for the heads up on the new ad.)