COUNTRY FRIED

Country Fried's 2008 Presidential Election Final Prediction: Obama Wins with 300+ Electoral Votes

A new job and a one-year-old have kept me too busy to offer any commentary over these last several months.  However, here is my last minute prediction of how the electoral vote count will look once all of the votes are counted:

(I used the RealClearPolitics "Create Your Own Electoral Map" for this graphic.)

Several follow up points for consideration as you wait for results:

• The only path to victory that I see for John McCain would be for him to sweep Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio (all three of which I have given to Obama).  McCain then wins 281 to 257.  However, unless something else changes on the map above, McCain must win all three to beat Obama.  (And the only other states that could be in play for McCain are Colorado and Minnesota--and possibly New Hampshire.)  However, this scenario is not very likely.
• More likely than a McCain victory is an even bigger Obama victory.  At this point, I would not be surprised to see Obama win both Florida and North Carolina.  That would give Obama a 353 to 185 electoral vote victory.
• Worst case scenario: Take the map above, but move Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia into McCain's column.  That gives you a 269 to 269 electoral vote tie.  Richard Cohen at NationalJournal.com has an article explaining what might happen then. 
• What about the popular vote?  My prediction: Obama - 50.9%, McCain - 45.7% 

Country Fried PREDICTION: Hillary Clinton Will Not Be the Next President

In other words, the next President of the United States will be either John McCain or Barack Obama.

Notice that I did not say that Hillary Clinton would not be the Democrat nominee. I still think she has a good chance of winning the Democrat nomination (though, today, I think that Barack Obama has a better chance). What I said is that she will not be the next President. (Spelling that out: If she wins the Democrat nomination, John McCain wins the election.)

Also, just in case you haven't looked at any other news source in the last four hours, John Edwards is currently announcing his departure from the Democrat race.

Country Fried PREDICTION: John McCain will be the GOP Nominee for President

Just in case it wasn't already obvious enough to everyone else out there.

As we look to the November, Rasmussen has just released a national poll of head-to-head match ups between McCain and the two remaining Democrat candidates. Here are the results:

McCain 48%
Clinton 40%

McCain 47%
Obama 41%

So the remaining questions of interest in the presidential contest include:

1. How long until Romney and Huckabee announce their departure from the race? My guess . . . within the week after Super Tuesday (February 5th). (Though, there is an outside chance that Huckabee could leave earlier.)

2. Who wins the Democrat nomination and how long does it take?

3. Who will John McCain choose to be his vice presidential running mate?

4. Who will the Democrat nominee choose to be his or her vice presidential running mate?

5. Who will be the next President of the United States? My next post will provide a prediction allowing you to eliminate one person from your consideration.

McCain Wins Florida and All 57 Delegates

The Florida Primary results can be viewed here.

Other news coming out of Florida:

Clinton and Obama in Florida Delegate Tie (Zero to Zero)

Giuliani Expected to Depart Race & Endorse McCain (Maybe Tomorrow)

W.W.J.C.D.? (Jimmy Carter, That Is)

There has been a lot of talk in political circles that, with Ted Kennedy having made his endorsement of Obama, there is only one other major endorsement to be had: Al Gore. However, there is another, more respected figure in the Democrat Party who has just made his views known. It ain't an official endorsement, but take a listen:

The corresponding article can be found here.

According to Carter, all of his descendants save one have endorsed Obama. (The one exception has endorsed John Edwards.) It also sounds like Bill Clinton made a hat-in-hand call to President Carter trying to explain his recent controversial comments and make sure that Carter didn't get involved due to those comments.

Changes

Just in case you hadn't noticed that a certain word was getting a lot of use by a select group of individuals:

Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan

Just in Case You Didn't Notice

My prediction of the South Carolina Democrat Primary results:

Obama 44
Clinton 29
Edwards 26
Other 1

The Actual Results

Obama 55
Clinton 27
Edwards 18
Other <1

So, I got the order right, but I seriously underestimated the margin of Obama's victory. I was very close on Clinton's numbers, but I overestimated the last minute movement in Edwards' direction.

There were many impressive things about this primary. Who would have thought that, in a year when both parties were having very competitive presidential primaries, that more South Carolinians would turn out to vote in a Democrat primary than in a Republican primary?

OBAMA WINS SOUTH CAROLINA . . . BIG TIME.

NBC CALLS IT AS THE POLLS CLOSE. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, THE SIZE OF THE VICTORY WILL BECOME CLEARER.

SC Democrat Primary UPDATE: Something to Read Until the Polls Close

Here are a couple of articles about today's Democrat primary in South Carolina:

To Truly Win in Carolina, Obama Needs Large Margin (Amy Chozick, Wall Street Journal)
Early Turnout Well Above Average (Shailagh Murray, Washington Post's The Trail)

Also, The State's S.C. Politics Today blog has been providing updates throughout the day on turnout levels at various polling sites.

Finally, there was an updated Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll released after I completed my final poll post. It was taken Jan. 24-25 with the following results: Obama 41, Clinton 26, Edwards 19.

The actual polls close in about two and a half hours.

SC Democrat Primary UPDATE: Clinton's Last Minute Attack on Edwards

Hillary's campaign must be worried about the Edwards' surge in South Carolina because they are placing recorded phone calls to South Carolina voters attacking John Edwards. Here is the text of the call (courtesy of The Page):

Hello, This is the Hillary Clinton for President Campaign.

Before you vote on Saturday, you should know that John Edwards voted for permanent trade relations with China. That’s right, John Edwards voted for the bill that cost thousands of jobs. Like the ones in the textile mills he talks about so much down here.

You should also know that John Edwards made nearly a half a million dollars working for a Wall Street investment fund. A fund that’s been profiting on foreclosing on the homes of families; including 100 homes right here in South Carolina. That’s according to The State newspaper. Here in South Carolina, Edwards says he’s one of us, but up on Wall Street he was just another one of them.

Can you trust John Edwards? This call is paid for by the Hillary Clinton for President Campaign.

You can listen to a recording of the call here.