Country Fried's 2008 U.S. Senate Election Final Predictions: Democrats Gain 7 Seats

The Senate is currently composed of 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents.  However, both of the Independents (Lieberman and Jeffords) caucus with the Democrats, thereby giving the Democrats a 51 to 49 working majority.

There are 35 Senate seats at stake in this election. (Normally, there would have been 33 Senate seats at stake in this election cycle.  However, the death of Wyoming Senator Craig Thomas has led to a special election for the remaining four years of his term, and the resignation of Trent Lott in Mississippi has led to a special election for the remaining four years of his term.)  Republicans currently hold 23 of the seats at stake (including the two special election seats), and Democrats hold 12.

Political pundits appear unanimous in concluding that the Democrats will increase their numbers in the Senate after the votes are counted this year.  The big question, though, is by how much.  More specifically, will the Democrats be able to reach the magic number of 60, which would give them a “filibuster-proof” majority (assuming that members vote along party lines—and that Lieberman continues to caucus with the Democrats after the election)?  As explained below, the Democrats will increase their numbers substantially, but will likely fall a couple of seats short of the 60 mark.

 

Democrat Holds (12 of 12): Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joe Biden), Illinois (Dick Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Louisiana (Mary Landrieu), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

 

Republican Holds (16 of 23): Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Idaho (Jim Risch), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Maine (Susan Collins), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), Mississippi special (Roger Wicker), Nebraska (Mike Johanns), Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Texas (John Cornyn), Wyoming (Mike Enzi), Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

 

Predicted Seat Changes – 7 Senate Seats Move from Republican to Democrat Column –

• Alaska: Democrat Mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich, will defeat convicted incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens.
• Colorado: Democrat Congressman Mark Udall defeats Republican former Congressman Bob Schaffer to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard.
• New Hampshire: Democrat former Governor Jeanne Shaheen will defeat first-term incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu
• New Mexico: Democrat Congressman Tom Udall (whose cousin is running in Colorado) defeats Republican Congressman Steve Pearce to take the place of retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici.
• North Carolina: Democrat State Senator Kay Hagan defeats incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.
• Oregon: Democrat State House Speaker Jeff Merkley will defeat incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith.
• Virginia: Democrat former Governor Mark Warner defeats Republican former Governor Jim Gilmore to replace the retiring Republican Senator, John Warner. 

The Races to Watch (i.e., where I could be wrong): Alaska, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi (special), New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon.  One final note: if neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in Georgia's Senate election, the candidates will be forced to compete in a run-off election in December.

Comments

[Steve]

Thanks. I won my office election pool 4 years ago with your help. However, this time I hope you're wrong.