A new job and a one-year-old have kept me too busy to offer any commentary over these last several months. However, here is my last minute prediction of how the electoral vote count will look once all of the votes are counted:
(I used the RealClearPolitics "Create Your Own Electoral Map" for this graphic.)
Several follow up points for consideration as you wait for results:
- The only path to victory that I see for John McCain would be for him to sweep Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio (all three of which I have given to Obama). McCain then wins 281 to 257. However, unless something else changes on the map above, McCain must win all three to beat Obama. (And the only other states that could be in play for McCain are Colorado and Minnesota--and possibly New Hampshire.) However, this scenario is not very likely.
- More likely than a McCain victory is an even bigger Obama victory. At this point, I would not be surprised to see Obama win both Florida and North Carolina. That would give Obama a 353 to 185 electoral vote victory.
- Worst case scenario: Take the map above, but move Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia into McCain's column. That gives you a 269 to 269 electoral vote tie. Richard Cohen at NationalJournal.com has an article explaining what might happen then.
- What about the popular vote? My prediction: Obama - 50.9%, McCain - 45.7%
Comments