NOTE: I WILL UPDATE THIS POST THROUGHOUT TODAY (ELECTION EVE) AS I COMPLETE MY ANALYSIS.
AS OF 8:10PM, THIS POST HAS BEEN FULLY UPDATED WITH ALL RACES PREDICTED.
Introduction
Tomorrow, November 7, 2006, there will be 33 United States Senate seats up for election. The current make-up of the United States Senate is 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent (Jim Jeffords of Vermont who caucuses with the Democrats). Of those totals, 15 Republican seats, 17 Democrat seats, and the lone Independent seat are being contested in this election. Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that, no matter what happens at the polls on Election Day, there will be at least 40 Republicans and 27 Democrats in the next United States Senate. Out of the 33 contests, 29 races feature incumbents who are seeking to retain their seats. Thus, there are only 4 open seats—1 Republican seat (due to the retirement of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee); 2 Democrat seats (Maryland and Minnesota); and 1 Independent seat (Jeffords of Vermont is also retiring).
So, we will start with those totals and add additional seats as predictions accumulate:
Predictions
19 Safe Seats
In 18 Senate elections, there are now no serious challenges to the incumbent U.S. Senators running to retain their seats. Of these seats, 11 are held by Democrats—California (Dianne Feinstein); Delaware (Thomas Carper); Florida (Bill Nelson); Hawaii (Daniel Akaka); Massachusetts (Edward Kennedy); Nebraska (Ben Nelson); New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman); New York (Hillary Rodham Clinton); North Dakota (Kent Conrad); West Virginia (Robert Byrd); and Wisconsin (Herb Kohl)—and 7 are held by Republicans—Indiana (Richard Lugar), Maine (Olympia Snowe); Mississippi (Trent Lott); Nevada (John Ensign); Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison); Utah (Orrin Hatch); and Wyoming (Craig Thomas). In addition, in Vermont, Socialist Congressman Bernie Sanders is overwhelmingly favored to replace Jim Jeffords—thereby keeping that seat in the independent column.
Once the Safe Seats are added back in, there will be at least 47 Republicans, 38 Democrats, and 1 Independent in the next U.S. Senate.
2 Incumbents Who Will Lose
Unless something drastic happens in Ohio or Pennsylvania in the next 24 hours, Republican incumbents Mike DeWine (Ohio) and Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania) will lose to their Democrat opponents (Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey, respectively).
Once these loses are added in, there are 47 Republicans, 40 Democrats, and 1 Independent.
5 Potential—Though Unlikely—Surprises
There are 4 races where there is an outside chance of a challenger scoring an upset victory over an incumbent. In 3 of those races the incumbent is a Democrat—Connecticut (Joseph Lieberman); Michigan (Debbie Stabenow); and Washington (Maria Cantwell). (However, since Lieberman is now running as an Independent, an upset victory by his opponent, Ned Lamont, would mean a Democrat victory.) And in 1 of those races the incumbent is a Republican—Arizona (John Kyl). Moreover, there is one open seat currently held by a Democrat where the Republican has, at best, an outside chance of winning. That seat is Minnesota, where Amy Klobuchar appears to be headed to a comfortable victory over Congressman Mark Kennedy.
Assuming that there are no surprises out of this category (and recognizing that a Lieberman win switches that seat from Democrat to Independent), the score now comes to 48 Republicans, 43 Democrats, and 2 Independents (both of whom would caucus with the Democrats). This leaves 7 seats to watch closely on Election Night.
Before moving on, it’s worth noting that the Democrats have to keep the Republicans below 50 seats in order to seize control of the Senate. (In case of a tie, the Vice President casts the deciding vote in the Senate—thus, Dick Cheney could give 50 Republicans a majority for organizing the Senate.) Therefore, in order to gain control of the upper chamber, Democrats have to wine 6 out of 7 of the following races. If Republicans can hold onto at least 2 of the following 7 races, they will maintain, by the barest of margins, control of the Senate.
Just like in 2004, we are down to:
THE SELECT SEVEN
These seven races are the ones to watch on Election Night. They seats include: 2 open seats (Tennessee, currently Republican, and Maryland, currently Democrat); 4 Republican incumbents; and 1 Democrat incumbent. I have divided these seven into two categories: Leaners, where I believe the polls and general trends give us a reasonable indication of who will win, and the Toss-Ups, where your guess is (almost) as good as mine.
The Two Leaners
1. Tennessee – Republican Bob Corker has recently opened a consistent (and in some polls, fairly healthy) lead over Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. Unless something big happens in the next 24 hours, this one will stay with the Republicans—which means the Democrats have to bat .1000 in the remaining races in order to gain control.
2. New Jersey – Democrat Robert Menendez was appointed by Governor Jon Corzine to replace Corzine in the Senate after he was elected governor. Tom Kean, Jr., was considered one of the most promising Republican challengers—especially after news of corruption scandals arose regarding Menendez. However, going into Election Day, Menendez has a consistent lead in the polls. The Democrats will hold this seat.
Once the Leaners are added in, the score becomes 49 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 Democrat-aligned Independents. The Democrats have to run the table in the Five Toss-Ups in order to gain control.
The Five Toss-Ups
12:52 PM: I WILL UPDATE THIS POST LATER TODAY (OR THIS EVENING) IN ORDER TO PROVIDE MY PREDICTIONS IN THE FIVE TOSS-UP RACES (MARYLAND, MISSOURI, MONTANA, RHODE ISLAND, AND VIRGINIA).
4:42 PM UPDATE: HERE ARE FOUR OF THE FIVE TOSS-UPS. I'M STILL DELIBERATING ON MARYLAND.
1. Missouri – Incumbent Republican Jim Talent has been locked in a consistently tight race against Democrat Claire McCaskill. Over recent months, polls have almost uniformly shown these candidates within one or two points of each other. On Election Day, it could easily go either way. However, greater organizational prowess should allow Talent to eke out a razor thin victory. The Republicans will hold this seat—and thereby hold the majority.
2. Rhode Island – The most liberal Republican in the United States Senate, Lincoln Chafee, is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse. Just a week ago, Whitehouse looked like a fairly sure thing to oust Chafee. However, some recent polls have shown this race tightening—and one poll from this past weekend actually shows Chafee ahead by a point. Despite this tightening, I think that Chafee will be unable to survive. The Democrats will take this seat.
3. Montana – After being tainted by the Jack Abramoff scandal (due to having received nearly $150,000 in contributions from Abramoff and his clients or associates), incumbent Conrad Burns had been written off as another likely Republican casualty several weeks ago. However, in the last couple of weeks, this race has tightened, and new polls have shown Burns and his opponent, John Tester, neck-and-neck. Given this trend and the strong Republican leanings of Montana, Burns should squeak through to victory. In a come from behind victory, the Republicans will hold this seat.
4. Virginia – Incumbent Republican Senator George Allen started this campaign season being touted as a potential 2008 White House contender. His only problems: himself and an intervening reelection campaign. Allen has run one of the worst campaigns of an incumbent Senator this cycle. From his “macaca” comment to his criticisms of lurid scenes in his opponent’s novels, Allen has consistently harmed his own chances for survival. In the past couple of weeks, there has been a definite trend in favor of his opponent, former Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan, James Webb. The Democrats will take this seat.
STILL BROODING OVER MARYLAND . . . .
8:10 PM UPDATE: HERE'S MY FINAL PREDICTION.
5. Maryland – This is a Democrat open seat in a very Democrat-oriented stated. Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele has run a near flawless campaign against lackluster Democrat Congressman Ben Cardin. If it weren’t for the strong Democrat leanings of the electorate, Steele would be the favorite. Instead, polling over the past several months has consistently given Cardin a lead in high single digits or low double digits. That has changed, however, in the past week with Steele closing the gap consistently to within 5 points—and, in at least one poll, bringing the race to a tie. The momentum is clearly on Steele’s side. The question is: Does he have enough to win? We won't know the answer for sure until tomorrow night, but I'm going with the momentum to predict that Michael Steele pulls out a shocker upset victory over Ben Cardin. (Though, this could certainly be the race that proves the fallibility of my prognosticating capacity.) The Republicans take this seat.
The Final Tally—52 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 Democrat-Aligning Independents—a 3 seat Republican loss.
Comments