34 for 34! Country Fried Perfects the Art of Prediction in U.S. Senate Races

On the night before the election, I posted my final predictions as to the 34 races for the United States Senate. Well, the votes have been cast and counted, and the winners have now been declared in all 34 races. If you don’t already know the winners, you can take a quick look at my predictions because, in each race, my predicted winner is the actual winner.

In summary, the Republicans gained four seats in the U.S. Senate by: (1) picking up Democrat seats in South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana (without a runoff), and South Dakota; (2) losing only two Republican seats to the Democrats--in Illinois and Colorado; and (3) holding Republican seats in competitive races in Kentucky, Oklahoma, and, lastly, Alaska. As a result, next year’s Senate will have 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Jim Jeffords (as well as a new Minority Leader due to Daschle’s defeat).

Presidential Predictions v. Results

In the Presidential Election, I didn’t quite reach perfection. I was, however, pretty doggone close.

My predicted popular vote total was Bush 50.5%, Kerry 48%, Nader 1%, and others 0.5%. The actual results appear to be Bush 51.1%, Kerry 48%, Nader 0.3%, and others 0.6%. Basically, I underestimated Bush’s support by 0.6%, overestimated Nader by 0.7%, and underestimated votes for other minor party candidates by 0.1%.

My predicted electoral vote total was Bush 300 and Kerry 238. The actual tally appears to be Bush 286 (assuming Bush’s leads in New Mexico and Iowa hold) and Kerry 252 (assuming Kerry’s lead in Wisconsin holds). My errors were in calling Toss-Up states Hawaii and Wisconsin for Bush.

Congressional Results

I didn’t try to predict the results in the U.S. House because I didn’t have the time to try to follow individual House races. However, the GOP appears likely to have increased its majority in the House by 3 or 4 seats. The GOP went into the election controlling 229 of the House's 435 seats (when two recently vacated GOP-leaning districts are counted). Democrats controlled 205 seats with 1 Democrat-leaning Independent. (The N.Y. Times website differs slightly on these numbers indicating that the Republicans had 228 and the Democrats had 206.)

At this point, the GOP appears to have secured at least 231 seats. The Democrats have won 200 seats plus the 1 Democrat-leaning Independent. Three races are still undecided with Democrats likely to win one of those and Republicans the other two.

Comments

[The Parson]

Gloat, CountryFried! You deserve it. Good work.

[elise]

CONGRATULATIONS! You're the man, even though you lean republican.