Introduction
Tomorrow, voters in 34 states will be electing their U.S. Senators. Of those 34 seats up for grabs, 19 are currently held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans. The current make-up of the U.S. Senate is 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 1 “Independent” (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont who supports the Democrat leadership). Thus, of the current members of the Senate, the seats of 36 Republicans, 29 Democrats, and Jim Jeffords are not on the ballot tomorrow.
Of the 34 seats that are on the ballot, the incumbent senator is running for re-election in 26 races—leaving 8 open seats. Of the open seats, 5 are held by retiring Democrats, and 3 are held by retiring Republicans.
Based on the seats not on the ballot, Republicans start the night knowing they will hold 36 seats in the next Congress and Democrats knowing they will hold 29 seats (unless Kerry wins—which means they would lose that seat, at least temporarily).
Predictions
I am now breaking down the 34 seats up for election as follows (my prior predictions are here and here):
21 Safe Seats: In 21 states, the incumbent U.S. Senator should win with little or no difficulty. Of these seats, 11 are held by Democrats--Arkansas (Lincoln), California (Boxer), Connecticut (Dodd), Hawaii (Inouye), Indiana (Bayh), Maryland (Mikulski), North Dakota (Dorgan), Nevada (Reid), New York (Schumer), Oregon (Wyden), and Vermont (Leahy)--and 10 are held by Republicans--Alabama (Shelby), Arizona (McCain), Iowa (Grassley), Idaho (Crapo), Kansas (Brownback), Missouri (Bond), New Hampshire (Gregg), Ohio (Voinovich), Pennsylvania (Specter), and Utah (Bennett).
Once the safe seats are added back in, the score becomes 46 Republicans and 40 Democrats.
3 Potential Surprises: There are 3 Senate races where there is an outside chance of a challenger scoring a surprise victory over an incumbent. 2 of these seats are held by Democrats--Washington (Murray) and Wisconsin (Feingold)--and 1 is held by a Republican--Kentucky (Bunning). Although I will be watching for an upset, I don’t believe it will happen in any of these races.
Once these reasonably safe seats are added back in, the score becomes 47 Republicans and 42 Democrats.
3 Open Seats Where Party Control Will Change
1) Illinois - Democrat Barack Obama will defeat Alan Keyes by an impressive margin to help Democrats pick up this Republican seat.
2) Georgia – Republican Johnny Isakson will handily defeat Democrat Denise Majette to give Republicans official control of this seat currently held by retiring Democrat Zell Miller.
3) South Carolina – Although his campaign has suffered from some stumbles in the final month, Jim DeMint will defeat Inez Tenenbaum to give Republicans control of this seat currently held by retiring Democrat Fritz Hollings.
Once these seats are added back in, the Republicans have a net gain of one, and the score becomes 49 Republicans and 43 Democrats.
The Select Seven
The final seven races should be the closest races of the night. These races include 5 open seats (Florida, Colorado, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Oklahoma) of which 2 are currently held by Republicans (Colorado and Oklahoma) and the remaining 3 are held by Democrats. The other 2 seats involve the 2 most endangered incumbents—Democrat Tom Daschle of South Dakota and Republican Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.
I have divided these final seven races into 2 categories. The first five are races where I have some level of confidence in my predictions. The final two—the Two Toss-Ups—are the two races that I believe are most difficult to predict. Here they are:
1) Colorado – Democrat Ken Salazar has run an excellent campaign against Republican Pete Coors in the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Although a strong Bush showing in Colorado could prove me wrong, I am predicting that Salazar will win and give the Democrats a pick-up.
2) Louisiana – Republican David Vitter is running against two Democrats, Chris John and John Kennedy, in Louisiana’s open field general election to replace retiring Democrat John Breaux. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a run off will be held in December. I am predicting that Vitter will break the 50% mark and win outright tomorrow night. If he doesn’t, I believe that he will come so close that he will be the odds-on favorite to win in December. Under both scenarios, this becomes a Republican pick-up.
3) North Carolina – Republican Richard Burr has staged an incredible come-from-behind campaign against Democrat Erskine Bowles in the race to replace retiring (or promoted) Democrat John Edwards. Burr will win and give the Republicans another pick-up.
4) Oklahoma – Despite his own stumbles along the way, Republican Tom Coburn is poised to defeat Democrat Brad Carson to hold this seat for the Republicans.
5) South Dakota – In a major upset, Republican John Thune will defeat Democrat Senate Minority Leader Tom Dachle, thereby giving the Republicans another pick-up.
Once these five seats are added back in, the tally becomes 53 Republicans and 44 Democrats.
The Two Toss-Ups
These are the two where, by my own admission, there is the best chance that I will be wrong. Nevertheless, this is how I see them:
6) Alaska – With the help of an overpowering performance by President Bush in this state, incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski will hold on to defeat Democrat Tony Knowles, thereby allowing the Republicans to keep this once endangered seat.
7) Florida – Although the polls have gone back and forth in this race, I believe that Republican Mel Martinez will defeat Democrat Betty Castor by a slim margin in the race to replace Democrat Bob Graham—giving the Republicans their final pick-up.
The Final Tally—55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent—a four seat GOP pick-up.
Comments