Brian Hicks of the Charleston Post & Courier has an article in today’s paper about how South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is important to the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Hicks writes as if things are not looking as good for the GOP right now. I would beg to differ. First of all, it looks like the GOP is going to sweep the Carolinas (North and South) and Georgia, which translates into a three seat gain. (I've linked each state to the Real Clear Politics compilation of poll numbers for that state.) On the other side, the Democrats will pick up Illinois, which brings the GOP gain down to two. Beyond that, there are toss-up races in Louisiana, Oklahoma, Colorado, Florida, Alaska, and South Dakota (which Hicks fails to mention--for more on the South Dakota race, check out this site). In addition, there is a possibility for an upset of Republican incumbent Jim Bunning in Kentucky, but I think the GOP will hold this seat. At this point, I would give the edge to the GOP candidates in Louisiana, Oklahoma, Florida, and South Dakota. Oklahoma is currently GOP, but the other three are currently held by Democrats—so that makes another three seat pickup to bring the total GOP gain to five. With regard to Colorado and Alaska, which are currently GOP seats, I would now give a slight edge to the Democrats, thereby reducing Democrat loses by two. Therefore, at this point, I believe that we are likely to see a three seat pick-up for the GOP. That would make the breakdown in the U.S. Senate—54 Republicans, 45 Democrats, plus 1 Jim Jeffords.
For those of you who are looking for more information or analysis on the Senate races, I would recommend two sites that are focusing on the Senate battles--KivaCom and Senate Analysis 2004.
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