As promised, I am providing my current analysis and predictions as to the U.S. Presidential election. I have divided the states into three categories: Definites, Leaners, and Toss-Ups. Within each category, I assign the state to either Bush or Kerry. Finally, I provide a tally of the total electoral votes tallied to each candidate within the categories. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to gain a majority in the Electoral College (and thereby win the Presidency).
The Definites
These are the states (with electoral votes in parenthesis) that, barring an unforeseen major scandal or major foreign policy event, one candidate or the other can count on being in their column on election night. If one of these states ends up supporting a different candidate, then, in all likelihood, that candidate will have won the election in a landslide.
Bush's Definites: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), Utah (5), and Wyoming (3).
Kerry's Definites: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Note: Of these states, there are only a couple for which there is any real potential for a switch. In my opinion, the only Bush state that could possibly switch is Louisiana. The only Kerry state that I believe could potentially switch is California--although I believe that is very unlikely. If it happens, Bush obviously wins in a landslide. (There was also a fairly recent Hawaii poll that had Bush only 7 points behind Kerry. I, however, doubt that Hawaii will be in play.)
Definite Electoral Vote Count: Bush 142, Kerry 153
The Leaners
These are the states where polling and history indicate that one candidate or the other has a clear--but not insurmountable--advantage. These are states that remain, to some extent, in play. However, they are also states that, for the most part, the respective sides are counting on winning in order to remain competitive. Within this category, if one large state or a couple of smaller states move to the other candidate, then the candidate losing those electoral votes is in serious trouble.
Bush's Leaners: Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Tennessee (11), Virginia (13), and West Virginia (5).
Kerry's Leaners: Maine (4), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), and Washington (11).
Leaner Electoral Vote Count: Bush 80, Kerry 47
SubTotal (Definites plus Leaners): Bush 222, Kerry 200
The Toss-Ups
These are the states that some would say are "too close to call" and are where the candidates will be spending most of their campaign time over the next seven and a half weeks. My best guesses as to where these will end up on election night are as follows:
Bush's Toss-Ups: Florida (27), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), and Wisconsin (10).
Kerry's Toss-Ups: New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7), and Pennsylvania (21).
Toss-Up Electoral Vote Count: Bush 79, Kerry 37
Grand Total Prediction for Election Night 2004: Bush 301, Kerry 237
Of my calls on the Toss-Ups, my most controversial calls are probably putting Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin (totalling 27 electoral votes) in Bush's column. However, for a variety of reasons, I have a feeling that these states are trending Republican and are more likely to end up supporting Bush. Under my scenario, Bush would still win without them.
Addendum
Almost all states award their electoral votes on an all-or-nothing basis to the candidate who gets the most votes in the state. There are, however, a few potential exceptions: Maine, Nebraska, and Colorado (if a ballot referendum passes). Maine and Nebraska each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and apportion their remaining electoral votes by congressional district. Bush should have no trouble winning all of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes. However, Maine, which has two congressional districts (and 4 electoral votes), is a different story. It is my understanding that one of the congressional districts is slightly more conservative--the 2nd district. The most recent polling on Maine has Kerry up by about 4 (Gore won Maine in 2000). However, if the election stays that close in Maine, it is very possible that Bush would lose the state but win the more conservative district. Therefore, Kerry would get 3 votes and Bush would get 1. (For a more extensive analysis of Maine's potential electoral vote split, see this article from Slate.)
In addition, Colorado has a ballot initiative to distribute its electoral votes based on percentage of the popular vote won, and, if it passes on election day, it is written to go into effect immediately. If Colorado voters approve the initiative, it would be more likely to have a significant impact because Colorado is close but likely to go to Bush. Thus, those 9 votes would be split possibly 6-3 or 5-4 instead of all going to Bush. I assume that the state GOP and the Bush campaign will wage a campaign to defeat that initiative (ultimately it would weaken Colorado's importance in presidential elections--why spend all that money campaigning for a questionable allotment of votes?).
Finally, there is the possibility of "faithless electors." Some states have laws requiring that electors vote for the candidate for whom they have been elected to vote. Other states do not. Furthermore, it is not clear whether such laws are constitutional. For an excellent analysis of this issue, see this article from The Green Papers, which includes a link to a list of past faithless electors. Most recently, in 2000, a Gore elector from the District of Columbia, Barbara Lett-Simmons, cast a blank ballot in protest to D.C.'s "colonial status" instead of voting for Gore. Interestingly, a Bush elector from West Virginia, Richie Robb, has already voiced his possible plan to cast a protest vote against Bush.
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