My 2004 Senate Election Predictions & Analysis

Introduction

The current make-up of the United States Senate is 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 1 "Independent" (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont who supports the Democrat leadership).

In 2004, there are 34 United States Senate seats to be decided. Of the 34 seats up for grabs, 19 are currently held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans. Therefore, going into the election, there are 36 Republican Senators and 29 Democratic Senators (plus 1 Jim Jeffords) whose seats are not up for election. In addition, the incumbent senator is running for reelection in 26 of the 34 seats subject to election--leaving 8 open seats. Of the 8 open seats, 5 are held by retiring Democratic Senators, and 3 are held by retiring Republican Senators. It is also worth noting that 7 of the 8 open seats are in states that Bush won in 2000. (The exception is Illinois--unless you are still unwilling to admit that Bush won Florida.)

On election night, the Democrats will be trying to get to 50 and beyond by gaining at least two seats (with the knowledge that, if they get 50, Jeffords will give them the support to make them a majority). The Republicans will be trying to protect and build on their majority. With that said . . .

Each side starts the night building on the seats that are not up for election.

Thus, the score starts at 36 Republicans and 29 Democrats.

Predictions

I have broken down the 34 seats up for election are as follows:

18 Safe Seats - In 18 states, there is no serious challenge to the incumbent U.S. Senator. Of these seats, 10 are held by Democrats--Connecticut (Dodd), Hawaii (Inouye), Indiana (Bayh), Maryland (Mikulski), North Dakota (Dorgan), Nevada (Reid), New York (Schumer), Oregon (Wyden), Vermont (Leahy), and Wisconsin (Feingold)--and 8 are held by Republicans--Alabama (Shelby), Arizona (McCain), Iowa (Grassley), Idaho (Crapo), Kansas (Brownback), New Hampshire (Gregg), Ohio (Voinovich), and Utah (Bennett).

Once the safe seats are added back in, the score becomes 44 Republicans and 39 Democrats.

6 Potentially Competitive Seats - In 6 states, for a variety of reasons, the incumbent Senator is not completely safe. In these states, there is a potential for an upset. However, unless the incumbent suffers a serious miscue or significant coattails from the presidential election affect the race, these seats will remain with the party that currently holds them. Of these seats, 3 are held by Democrats--Arkansas (Lincoln), California (Boxer), and Washington (Murray)--and 3 are held by Republicans--Kentucky (Bunning), Missouri (Bond), and Pennsylvania (Specter). Of these 6 seats, I believe that the two with the greatest potential for producing upsets--and thereby party changes--are California and Washington.

Once these reasonably safe seats are added back in, the score becomes 47 Republicans and 42 Democrats.

3 Open Seats Where Party Control Will Change - In 3 open seats, the party controlling that seat is pretty much assured of losing the seat. 1 of these seats is currently held by a Republican--Illinois, where Barack Obama will certainly defeat Alan Keyes to give Democrats control of the seat. 2 of these seats are currently held by Democrats--Georgia, where Johnny Isakson will defeat Denise Majette to give Republicans control of the seat currently held by Zell Miller, and South Carolina, where Jim DeMint will defeat Inez Tennenbaum to give Republicans control of this seat currently held by Fritz Hollings. The net result, so far, is one Republican seat gain.

Once these three reasonably certain party changing seats are added in, the score becomes 49 Republicans and 43 Democrats.

The Select Seven

That leaves 7 Senate Seats--the Select Seven--that constitute the real action for control of the Senate. For the Democrats to be assured of control of the Senate, they have to sweep all 7 of these elections (if they win 6 and Kerry wins, then a Vice President Edwards would be able to give the 49 Democrats plus Jeffords a majority). Moreover, all 7 of these seats are in states that Bush won in 2000. Thus, if a sweep were to occur, at this point, I believe that the odds of a Republican sweep are far greater. The Select Seven break down into two groups--those leaning one way or the other and those that are truly "toss-ups."

2 Leaning Seats - In 2 of the Select Seven, it is my impression that one of the candidates has a definite--though slight--advantage. One of these seats is a open Democratic seat--North Carolina, where Democrat Erskine Bowles has a slight advantage over Republican Richard Burr--and the other is an open Republican seat--Oklahoma, where Republican Tom Coburn has a slight advantage over Democrat Brad Carson. Both of these seats, however, should be watched.

Once these two seats are added back in, the score becomes 50 Republicans and 44 Democrats.

Toss Ups - The Final Five - I am currently categorizing the five remaining seats as toss-ups. Three of these seats are open seats (one currently Republican, two currently Democrat), and two are held by endangered incumbents (one a Republican, and one a Democrat). These seats are as follows:

1. Alaska - Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed by her dad to complete his term after he was elected governor, is being challenged by popular former governor Tony Knowles. Although recent polls have shown Knowles to have a slight lead, I believe that a strong showing by Bush in Alaska will help Murkowski hold on to this seat. However, if any Republican incumbent loses on election night, it will almost certainly be Murkowski. For now, I predict Republicans will hold this seat

2. Colorado - Republican businessman Pete Coors is running against Democrat state Attorney General Ken Salazar for the seat currently held by retiring Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Recent polls have differed over which candidate holds the lead. However, I believe that Coors will prevail and hold this seat for the GOP.

3. Florida - Republican former HUD secretary Mel Martinez is running against Democrat and former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor for the seat currently held by retiring Democrat Bob Graham. Although the most recent poll--taken immediatley after the Republicans' bruising primary--has given Castor a slight lead, I believe that, once the Republican base unifies behind Martinez, he will be on his way to becoming the first Cuban American U.S. Senator. For now, I predict a Republican gain in Florida.

4. Louisiana - Under Louisiana's unusual election procedure, Republican congressman David Vitter will be running against three Democrats--congressman Chris John, state treasurer John Kennedy, and state representative Arthur Morrell--on the general election ballot to replace retiring Democrat John Breaux. If no candidate receives a majority on the November ballot (and, with the splintering of the Democratic vote, Vitter is the only candidate who currently has that potential), then the two top candidates--most likely, Vitter and John--will face each other in a December run off. With all eyes on Louisiana after the likely Republican gains throughout the rest of the country, I will boldly predict that Louisiana will do something it hasn't done since Reconstruction--send a Republican to the U.S. Senate. However, this is one race that has not developed enough for me to feel very confident with making a prediction either way. But, for now, I predict a Republican gain.

5. South Dakota - Democrat incumbent and Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is facing a stiff challenge from Republican former congressman Jim Thune, who came within about 500 votes of ousting South Dakota's other Democrat Senator, Tim Johnson, in the closest Senate election of 2002. One recent poll has even given a slight lead to Thune. However, for now, I am going to give a slight edge to Daschle (partly due to the fact that South Dakota was the only Senate race that I missed in 2002--when I predicted that Thune would beat Johnson). Therefore, I predict that the Democrats will hang on to South Dakota.

Conclusion

My Prediction as to the Final Results - Once all of the votes are tallied (which may not be until December due to Louisiana), the Republicans will hold 54 seats and the Democrats will hold 45 seats.

Addendum: Best Case Scenarios

By the way, the corresponding best case scenarios for the parties would be:

Democrats' Best Case Scenario - takeover Illinois, Alaska, Colorado, and Oklahoma; hold North Carolina, South Dakota, Florida, and Louisiana; lose only Georgia and South Carolina
- Result - 49 Republicans, 50 Democrats and 1 Jeffords

Republicans' Best Case Scenario - takeover North Carolina, South Dakota, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Louisiana; hold Alaska, Colorado, and Oklahoma; lose only Illinois
- Result - 56 Republicans, 43 Democrats and 1 Jeffords
(This scenario, however, assumes that California and Washington will not become viable upset possibilities.)

Comments

[Robert]

Get this man on CNBC. Insightful, thorough, and balanced analysis. Keep calling em like you see em !