With the first Presidential Debate of this election year coming tomorrow night, I have finally gotten around to revising and updating my original 2004 Presidential Election Predictions, which were published on September 9th. At that time, I predicted a Bush victory with 301 electoral votes to Kerry’s 237. Once again, I am dividing the states into three categories: Definites, Leaners, and Toss-Ups. I have added comments when states have moved between categories.
The Definites
Bush's Definites: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), and Wyoming (3).
Kerry's Definites: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Comments: Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia have all moved from Bush Leaners to Bush Definites. Maryland had dropped from a Kerry Definite to a Kerry Leaner. Also, Delaware and Illinois are worth watching, but I’m not ready to move them out of Kerry’s definite column
Definite Electoral Vote Count: Bush 191, Kerry 143
The Leaners
Bush's Leaners: Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), West Virginia (5), and Wisconsin (10).
Kerry's Leaners: Maryland (10), Michigan (17), and Washington (11).
Comments: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin have all moved from Bush Toss-Ups to Bush Leaners. Maine has moved from a Kerry Leaner to a Kerry Toss-Up. New Jersey has moved from a Kerry Leaner to a Bush Toss-Up. Also, Maryland and Michigan are worth watching for movement into the Toss-Up category. As you will see below, with these revisions, Bush has an electoral vote majority (>269) before we get to the Toss-Ups.
Leaner Electoral Vote Count: Bush 100, Kerry 38
SubTotal (Definites plus Leaners): Bush 291, Kerry 181
The Toss-Ups
Bush's Toss-Ups: Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and New Jersey (15).
Kerry's Toss-Ups: Maine (4), Oregon (7), and Pennsylvania (21).
Comments: New Hampshire and New Mexico switch from Kerry Toss-Ups to Bush Toss-Ups. New Jersey is a switch from a Kerry Leaner to a Bush Toss-Up. Maine has dropped down from a Kerry Leaner to a Kerry Toss-Up.
Toss-Up Electoral Vote Count: Bush 34, Kerry 32
REVISED Grand Total Prediction for Election Night 2004: Bush 325, Kerry 213
Final Comments: Based on my predictions and analysis, Kerry has a lot of work to do if he wants to win this election. He not only needs to win all of the states currently categorized as Toss-Ups, but he also has to take away electoral votes from states that I believe are plainly leaning to Bush. The “easiest” way for Kerry to do that would be to win all of the Toss-Ups and win Florida—or to win all of the Toss-Ups plus Ohio and a smaller state, such as Nevada, West Virginia or Iowa. Kerry is clearly the underdog at this point, but he will have a chance to even the playing field if he can score a victory over Bush in the debate tomorrow night. On the other hand, if Bush is able to establish a decisive victory in the debate, there may be a landslide in the making.
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