COUNTRY FRIED

Country Fried's 2008 U.S. Senate Election Final Predictions: Democrats Gain 7 Seats

The Senate is currently composed of 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents.  However, both of the Independents (Lieberman and Jeffords) caucus with the Democrats, thereby giving the Democrats a 51 to 49 working majority.

There are 35 Senate seats at stake in this election. (Normally, there would have been 33 Senate seats at stake in this election cycle.  However, the death of Wyoming Senator Craig Thomas has led to a special election for the remaining four years of his term, and the resignation of Trent Lott in Mississippi has led to a special election for the remaining four years of his term.)  Republicans currently hold 23 of the seats at stake (including the two special election seats), and Democrats hold 12.

Political pundits appear unanimous in concluding that the Democrats will increase their numbers in the Senate after the votes are counted this year.  The big question, though, is by how much.  More specifically, will the Democrats be able to reach the magic number of 60, which would give them a “filibuster-proof” majority (assuming that members vote along party lines—and that Lieberman continues to caucus with the Democrats after the election)?  As explained below, the Democrats will increase their numbers substantially, but will likely fall a couple of seats short of the 60 mark.

 

Democrat Holds (12 of 12): Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joe Biden), Illinois (Dick Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Louisiana (Mary Landrieu), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

 

Republican Holds (16 of 23): Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Idaho (Jim Risch), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Maine (Susan Collins), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), Mississippi special (Roger Wicker), Nebraska (Mike Johanns), Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Texas (John Cornyn), Wyoming (Mike Enzi), Wyoming special (John Barrasso)

 

Predicted Seat Changes – 7 Senate Seats Move from Republican to Democrat Column –

• Alaska: Democrat Mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich, will defeat convicted incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens.
• Colorado: Democrat Congressman Mark Udall defeats Republican former Congressman Bob Schaffer to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard.
• New Hampshire: Democrat former Governor Jeanne Shaheen will defeat first-term incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu
• New Mexico: Democrat Congressman Tom Udall (whose cousin is running in Colorado) defeats Republican Congressman Steve Pearce to take the place of retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici.
• North Carolina: Democrat State Senator Kay Hagan defeats incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.
• Oregon: Democrat State House Speaker Jeff Merkley will defeat incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith.
• Virginia: Democrat former Governor Mark Warner defeats Republican former Governor Jim Gilmore to replace the retiring Republican Senator, John Warner. 

The Races to Watch (i.e., where I could be wrong): Alaska, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi (special), New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon.  One final note: if neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in Georgia's Senate election, the candidates will be forced to compete in a run-off election in December.

Country Fried's 2008 Presidential Election Final Prediction: Obama Wins with 300+ Electoral Votes

A new job and a one-year-old have kept me too busy to offer any commentary over these last several months.  However, here is my last minute prediction of how the electoral vote count will look once all of the votes are counted:

(I used the RealClearPolitics "Create Your Own Electoral Map" for this graphic.)

Several follow up points for consideration as you wait for results:

• The only path to victory that I see for John McCain would be for him to sweep Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio (all three of which I have given to Obama).  McCain then wins 281 to 257.  However, unless something else changes on the map above, McCain must win all three to beat Obama.  (And the only other states that could be in play for McCain are Colorado and Minnesota--and possibly New Hampshire.)  However, this scenario is not very likely.
• More likely than a McCain victory is an even bigger Obama victory.  At this point, I would not be surprised to see Obama win both Florida and North Carolina.  That would give Obama a 353 to 185 electoral vote victory.
• Worst case scenario: Take the map above, but move Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia into McCain's column.  That gives you a 269 to 269 electoral vote tie.  Richard Cohen at NationalJournal.com has an article explaining what might happen then. 
• What about the popular vote?  My prediction: Obama - 50.9%, McCain - 45.7% 

Open Hand Beats Closed Fist: Robert Mugabe Has Lost Control of the Zimbabwean Parliament

In the officially released results tally, Robert Mugabe's party, ZANU-PF, has now lost control of the Zimbabwean Parliament. Courtesy of Sokwanale.com, here are the official (ZEC) and private (PVT) tallies at this point:

We are still awaiting the official results from the Presidential election . . .

Could It Be True? Is Mugabe's Reign Over?

If so, it would be the best international news that I've heard in years . . .

(Image courtesy of MDC photo gallery)

But I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much. Mugabe has stolen many prior elections. Though word out of Zimbabwe is that MDC's victory margin may be overpowering Mugabe's attempt to cling to power.

You can follow the Zimbabwe election news and developments at these sites:

BBC Zimbabwe Page
SW Radio Africa
ZWNews.com
Kubatana Blogs
ZimOnline
AllAfrica.com Zimbabwe Page
This is Zimbabwe Blog
Mugabe Makaipa Blog

Dwight Howard: "A Video Game . . . Not a Real Person"

Sorry for the nonexistent blogging. I will be back from my self-imposed hiatus next Thursday. In the meantime . . a ten minute study break.

Dwight Howard at the 2008 Slam Dunk Contest . . . the commentators reactions give some indication:

"Are you kidding me?"

"That was easy for him, though."

"That's humanly impossible."

"He's a video game. He's not a real person."

Hat tip: Daily Dish

Enjoy.

Country Fried PREDICTION: Hillary Clinton Will Not Be the Next President

In other words, the next President of the United States will be either John McCain or Barack Obama.

Notice that I did not say that Hillary Clinton would not be the Democrat nominee. I still think she has a good chance of winning the Democrat nomination (though, today, I think that Barack Obama has a better chance). What I said is that she will not be the next President. (Spelling that out: If she wins the Democrat nomination, John McCain wins the election.)

Also, just in case you haven't looked at any other news source in the last four hours, John Edwards is currently announcing his departure from the Democrat race.

Country Fried PREDICTION: John McCain will be the GOP Nominee for President

Just in case it wasn't already obvious enough to everyone else out there.

As we look to the November, Rasmussen has just released a national poll of head-to-head match ups between McCain and the two remaining Democrat candidates. Here are the results:

McCain 48%
Clinton 40%

McCain 47%
Obama 41%

So the remaining questions of interest in the presidential contest include:

1. How long until Romney and Huckabee announce their departure from the race? My guess . . . within the week after Super Tuesday (February 5th). (Though, there is an outside chance that Huckabee could leave earlier.)

2. Who wins the Democrat nomination and how long does it take?

3. Who will John McCain choose to be his vice presidential running mate?

4. Who will the Democrat nominee choose to be his or her vice presidential running mate?

5. Who will be the next President of the United States? My next post will provide a prediction allowing you to eliminate one person from your consideration.

McCain Wins Florida and All 57 Delegates

The Florida Primary results can be viewed here.

Other news coming out of Florida:

Clinton and Obama in Florida Delegate Tie (Zero to Zero)

Giuliani Expected to Depart Race & Endorse McCain (Maybe Tomorrow)

W.W.J.C.D.? (Jimmy Carter, That Is)

There has been a lot of talk in political circles that, with Ted Kennedy having made his endorsement of Obama, there is only one other major endorsement to be had: Al Gore. However, there is another, more respected figure in the Democrat Party who has just made his views known. It ain't an official endorsement, but take a listen:

The corresponding article can be found here.

According to Carter, all of his descendants save one have endorsed Obama. (The one exception has endorsed John Edwards.) It also sounds like Bill Clinton made a hat-in-hand call to President Carter trying to explain his recent controversial comments and make sure that Carter didn't get involved due to those comments.

Changes

Just in case you hadn't noticed that a certain word was getting a lot of use by a select group of individuals:

Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan

Recent Florida GOP Poll Numbers

Pollster.com has them all here. Basically, Romney and McCain are neck-and-neck for first, Giuliani has fallen to third, and Huckabee is right behind Giuliani. This AP article includes the following quote about Giuliani's plans after Florida:

Asked if a loss would end his campaign, Giuliani said: "Wednesday morning, we'll make a decision."

And then there were three.

(Unless, of course, you're still counting Ron Paul. Since he doesn't have a chance at the nomination, I'm not.)

Politics--Primary and Otherwise: Some Recent Articles/Posts Worth Reading

Obama's Feb 5 Strategy Develops.... (Marc Ambinder)

Fox News's Latest Logo (Andrew Sullivan)

Kids these days (Rod Dreher)

Obama’s Christian Campaign (Jodi Kantor, NY Times' The Caucus)

Tracing Hillary Clinton's '35 Years' of Experience (NPR's All Things Considered)

AG Edwards? (Matthew Mosk, Washington Post's The Trail)

Crunching the South Carolina Numbers (Peter Baker, Washington Post's The Trail)

It should be no surprise that the Clintons are playing the race card (Christopher Hitchens, Slate.com)

The candidates' Feb. 5 strategies become clearer after South Carolina (Kalafarski & Matlin, Slate.com)

Enjoy reading . . .

Lighter Blogging Ahead

Now that the South Carolina primaries are over, I will be blogging more lightly through much of the next month due to some other professional commitments that require my focus through the end of February. Please keep checking in though. I'm planning to keep it going--just not at the same level.

Thanks.

Just in Case You Didn't Notice

My prediction of the South Carolina Democrat Primary results:

Obama 44
Clinton 29
Edwards 26
Other 1

The Actual Results

Obama 55
Clinton 27
Edwards 18
Other <1

So, I got the order right, but I seriously underestimated the margin of Obama's victory. I was very close on Clinton's numbers, but I overestimated the last minute movement in Edwards' direction.

There were many impressive things about this primary. Who would have thought that, in a year when both parties were having very competitive presidential primaries, that more South Carolinians would turn out to vote in a Democrat primary than in a Republican primary?

Country Fried EXCLUSIVE: What I Saw at the Revolution

Obama Celebrates Victory with His Supporters
Originally uploaded by countryfried

Country Fried was on the ground in Columbia for the South Carolina Democrat primary. It was an impressive event--both the election and the aftermath. Click here to view more images from that day.